Lions Gab

Despite a loss in Super Bowl XLIV, the Colts have the inside track on winning Super Bowl XLV according to bodog.com. The Lions are right now 100/1 to win the SB in the 2010 season. Below are all the odds on all the teams making the Super Bowl in Dallas in 2011:

Indianapolis Colts 13/2
San Diego Chargers 8/1
New England Patriots 10/1
New Orleans Saints 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 11/1
Dallas Cowboys 12/1
Green Bay Packers 12/1
Minnesota Vikings 12/1
Philadelphia Eagles 16/1
Baltimore Ravens 20/1
New York Giants 20/1
New York Jets 25/1
Tennessee Titans 25/1
Atlanta Falcons 30/1
Cincinnati Bengals 30/1
Arizona Cardinals 35/1
Chicago Bears 35/1
Houston Texans 35/1
Carolina Panthers 40/1
Miami Dolphins 45/1
San Francisco 49ers 45/1
Seattle Seahawks 45/1
Denver Broncos 50/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 50/1
Washington Redskins 50/1
Buffalo Bills 100/1
Cleveland Browns 100/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1
Oakland Raiders 100/1
St. Louis Rams 100/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 100/1

With the Super Bowl just days away, we here at LionsGab.com are giving away a free FLO TV! All you have to do is simply answer the following 20 Super Bowl Trivia questions, and send your answers to matt@nflgridirongab.com

FLO TV is a great product that brings live mobile TV to the small screen.

FLO TV offers more than 3,000 hours of sports programming and more than 1,200 live sporting events this year from such partners as ABC Mobile, CBS Sports, ESPN Mobile TV, Fox Mobile and NBC 2Go. Never miss a game again, and watch all your favorite shows on the run!

We will pick a winner and announce it next week here on the site. Enjoy!

1. Where was the first Super Bowl Played between the Packers and Chiefs?

2. Who scored the first touchdown in Super Bowl history?

3. Who is the leading lifetime rusher in Super Bowl history?

4. What team has won the most Super Bowls with 6?

5. Who is the youngest head coach to have ever won a Super Bowl?

6. What wide out caught the game winning TD with less than a minute to go in Super Bowl XXIII?

7. What kicker missed the game-winning field goal in the final seconds of Super Bowl XXV?

8. Where was Super Bowl XX held?

9. Name the four current Franchises that have never been to a Super Bowl

10. Who was the MVP of Super Bowl XVI?

11. What was odd about the first points scored in Super Bowl IX?

12. Where was last years Super Bowl (XLIII) held?

13. Name the four coaches to have lost four Super Bowls

14. What Falcon took back a kickoff for a touchdown in Super Bowl XXXIII?

15. What Colt kicker hit the game-winning kick in Super Bowl V vs Dallas?

16. Who was the MVP of Super Bowl XIV?

17. How many touchdowns did Steve Young throw in Super Bowl XXIX?

18. Who was the coach of the Colts when they lost to the Jets in SB III?

19. Who sang the National Anthem at last years Super Bowl (XLIII)?

20. What WR came up a yard short of the game-tying TD on the final play of Super Bowl XXXIV?

As the dust settles after Kurt Warner’s retirement, the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl media day the actual Super Bowl game is starting to come into focus.  In the last week and a half, Warner, Brett Favre, Tim Tebow and the commissioner’s declaration that the uncapped year is a “virtual certainty”, have dominated the headlines.  We’re now four days away from the game and it’s time to get back to business.

There seems to be a prevailing feeling that the Colts should win this game.  They are favored with the line at 6 points and most of the experts’ picks that I have seen follow suit.  At a quick glance, it’s easy to see why everybody is so high on the Colts.  The Colts are riding into the Super Bowl with an impressive pair of postseason wins.  The Saints come into the game after an emotionally draining and somewhat controversial overtime win against the Vikings, and a thorough thrashing of the overachieving Cardinals.  Peyton Manning delivered one of the best games of his career in the AFC Championship game while Drew Brees struggled with accuracy and played a pedestrian (by his lofty standards) game against the Vikings.  Let’s put all of that aside and take a look at what each team needs to do to win.

New Orleans

Offense: The Saints need to accomplish two main goals on offense, limit turnovers and establish the run.  The Saints have been prone to turnovers and the Colts take advantage of turnovers better than any team in the league.  The Colts offense is too potent to give them additional possessions or a short field.  In addition, the Colts rarely turn the ball over so even one turnover by the Saints could be devastating.

Saying a team has to run the ball to win is a huge cliché, but it is very true in this game.  Yes, the Dolphins ran the ball all over the Colts earlier this year.  They held the ball for 40+ minutes and kept Manning on the sideline and the Colts still won.  Time of possession and keeping Manning off the field are byproducts of the running game, but not the most important ones.  The Colts defensive front seven are active, but undersized.  They excel by getting penetration and swarming to the football in the running game, and having a potent pass rush to get quarterbacks out of their comfort zone.  The Colts also play a lot of zone coverage, and when they blitz the secondary has a lot of ground to cover.  Nothing tires out a fast defense more than a power running game, as the defense tires they get slower and slower.  Once the Colts’ speed is diminished, the Saints can be more aggressive on offense.

Defense: Gregg Williams has stated multiple times over the last two weeks that he wants to get pressure on Manning.  The Saints pummeled Kurt Warner and Brett Favre with great success, but they won’t be able to do the same with Manning.  The Colts’ offense is predicated on pre-snap reads.  Manning gets three plays called in the huddle and then checks to one of the three based on the defense.  The Colts also heavily utilize option routes.  The receiver reads how the defense is covering him and then runs a predetermined route for that coverage.  The Colts offense adjusts to the defense before the play and during the play, which makes it very difficult to blitz them.  Manning gets the ball out quickly as well, which limits the defensive lines’ ability to get pressure on him.  Lastly, Manning is afraid of getting hit.  If he sees that he is going to get sacked he falls down like a possum playing dead.  The Saints need to forget about disrupting Manning with the pass rush and instead focus on disrupting the receivers.

The Colts do not have big receivers, and their passing game is more reliant on timing than any other offense in the league.  If the Saints get physical with the Colts undersized receivers, they can disrupt the timing, which forces Manning to hold the ball longer.  That’s how the Saints get their pass rush.

Indianapolis

Offense: The Colts are well aware of the trail of broken quarterbacks the Saints have left in their wake, and I can only imagine they are licking their chops hoping for the same attacking defense.  As stated above, the Colts are the best-equipped offense in the league for countering blitzes.  If the Saints plan on blitzing Manning all day, the Colts will have huge opportunities to attack the secondary like they did against the Jets in the second half of the AFC Championship game.  If the Saints come out blitzing, the Colts should just keep throwing and they will eventually hit some big plays.  The real key on offense in that scenario is watching out for the Saints’ ball-hawking defense looking to strip the ball or baiting Manning into a pick.  Darren Sharper is one of the best defensive backs in the league at reading an offense; he disguises his coverage and then jumps routes as well as Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu.  Interceptions are the single most devastating play in the playoffs and the Saints finished 3^rd in the league in interceptions.

If the Saints attack the Colts offense the way I suggested above, the Colts can counter them with the running game.  If the Colts can successfully run the ball, the Saints will have to bring eight men in the box to stop the run.  That will limit their ability to play their safeties over the top of the bump and run coverage and force them to play more man coverage.

Defense: The Colts will be without a healthy Dwight Freeney, who will mostly likely play, but be limited by his ankle injury.  The importance of this injury cannot be overstated as the Colts defense is built around him.  He is a disruptive force as a pass rusher, but his speed and pursuit make him a good run defender too.  The Colts will have to compensate by shuffling their line around and using him in obvious passing situations.

The Saints offense poses more challenges to defend because they are so well rounded.  The Saints have an explosive passing game, a power running game, and an effective jack-of-all trades player in Reggie Bush.  However, the key is Drew Brees.  Brees doesn’t appear to be prone to turnovers with only 11 interceptions and six lost fumbles, but they come in bunches.  He had a four game stretch where he fumbled five times (losing three) and threw seven interceptions, while getting sacked nine times.  Brees tends to struggle when pressure comes up the middle.  He is only six feet tall, so he has a hard time seeing his receivers when his throwing lanes are congested.  He also has smaller hands, so he has a hard time holding the ball when he gets hit.

And the winner is…

I am taking the New Orleans Saints in the upset.  I think Gregg Williams knows the best way to beat Manning because of his years coaching against him in Tennessee.  I don’t think Manning’s ego will allow him to play second fiddle to the running game to counter the Saints’ defense and the Saints will force some turnovers.  The Saints running game will help them wear down the Colts defense and the big plays will be open in the second half.  The Colts have been solid against the run in the playoffs, but they finished 24^th in run defense in the regular season and 16^th in yards per carry.  I‘m going to go with a final score of New Orleans 34 Indianapolis 24.

Join Site Editor Matt Loede and Lions QB Matthew Stafford as they chat about the 2009 season, the AXE Hair Challenge, the crazy win over Clevland, his thoughts on the offseason, the 2010 draft, and his rookie year. Click to hear this interview with the #1 draft pick from 2009.

NFL.com says that OC Scott Lienhan expects RB Kevin Smith to be back and ready to roll in 2010:

Lions running back Kevin Smith finished the season on injured reserve due to a knee injury against Baltimore on Dec. 13th. Smith is progressing well from surgery and expected to be back for the start of next season, according to offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. “I’m sure he will return, he’s a young guy, he’ll keep working, he’s got a couple injuries he played through last year so he’s tough.” said Linehan.

The Detroit News has a report today about the Lions running backs…and speculates that the team will add a running back this offseason:

The Lions have three running backs under contract in Kevin Smith, Maurice Morris and Aaron Brown. But general manager Martin Mayhew already is on record saying, “I anticipate adding somebody to that position, either through free agency or trade or the draft.” “The question will be what their role is going to be, is it going to be a guy you bring in and say, this guy is going to be our starter or is it going to be a guy you bring in to supplement what you already have.”

Former Lions wide receiver Tommie Boyd faces another criminal sexual conduct charge after authorities say the high school track coach had sexual contact with a third teenage student. The 38-year-old was arraigned in the latest case Wednesday in Roseville. He was arraigned last week on charges of criminal sexual conduct and accosting a child for immoral purposes in two other cases.

The latest charge accuses Boyd of forcing a then 16-year-old girl to have sex in 2006 at Fraser High School, where he was a substitute teacher and track coach. Defense lawyer Todd Flood says Boyd is not guilty. Boyd was being held at the Macomb County Jail and his bond was increased from $300,000 to $400,000 Wednesday. Boyd played for the Lions in 1997 and 1998.

The 2009 season was very difficult for the Lions receiving corps, which is rarely discussed without being a punch line.  It is one of the rare positions on the Lions roster that contains one of the premier talents of the NFL, Calvin Johnson.  Outside of Calvin Johnson, the rest of the depth chart matches what people expect.

The hot button word of the month is “eraser” and it is quickly becoming synonymous with the Lions passing struggles of 2009.  Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan refers to an “eraser” as another player or players that help take the burden off Calvin Johnson.  It’s very difficult to consistently study secondary play without being able to see coaches film, but there were times when opposing defenses were triple covering CJ.  Defenses only have the nerve to commit that many defenders to one player when they do not have any reason to worry about the rest of the offensive players.

The receivers really struggled after the injuries to Kevin Smith, Matthew Stafford and Brandon Pettigrew.  The quarterback play dropped off with Stafford’s injury, Pettigrew was becoming a big eraser when he got hurt and Kevin Smith is a huge receiving threat out of the backfield.

Many teams would struggle with the loss of their starting quarterback, tight end and running back, but unfortunately, the Lions were having difficulties even when all three were healthy.  The issues stem from the lack of a consistent running game and Matthew Stafford’s inexperience.  A great example of how potent the passing game could be was the first half of the Bears game in Chicago.

The Lions had been running the ball effectively the first few weeks of the season and Stafford had been struggling with turnovers.  The Bears decided to bring eight men into the box to stop the running game and let Stafford beat them.  By bringing eight men into the box, they had to cover Calvin Johnson one-on-one.  Stafford and Calvin connected four times for 96 yards and the Lions put up 21 first half points.

Another good example was the epic Browns game, Kevin Smith had over 100 yards receiving and Brandon Pettigrew was taking advantage of the attention paid to Calvin with six catches for 72 yards and the game winning touchdown.  Calvin was able to abuse the single coverage for seven catches for 161 yards and a 75-yard touchdown.

The Lions flashed potential from time to time in 2009, but they need to add a couple more pieces to get on track.  Add Stafford’s maturation to the mix and the Lions shouldn’t be too far away from fielding a potent offense.

Here are some brief comments on each receiver and what direction the Lions will take in the offseason.

Calvin Johnson: His season was marred by injuries and erratic quarterbacking, but he still almost reached 1,000 yards and has solidified his place among the elite players in the league.  He and Stafford never really got the chance to establish a great rapport since Stafford was splitting time with Culpepper during OTAs, mini camps and training camp.  With a full offseason together, a Pro Bowl berth is well within reach in 2010.   2010 Season: Will start.

Bryant Johnson: Bryant Johnson had to be the season’s biggest disappointment.  Nobody expected Pro Bowl numbers out of him when he was signed, but 35 catches for 417 yards and 3 TDs was atrocious.  He caught tow passes or less in 11 of 16 games and never drew attention away from CJ.  I want to give him the benefit of the doubt since he never played in this type of offense before, but his struggles seemed to be in all phases of the game, not just timing.  2010 Season: He carries a decent enough salary that he could be asked to take a cut or leave.  He didn’t prove nearly enough to be counted on in 2010.

Dennis Northcutt: Northcutt was a decent slot receiver and a reliable return man, which is what the Lions expected when they traded for him.  His physical skills have eroded to the point that he isn’t a threat to break any big plays.  He didn’t make many plays, but also didn’t make many huge blunders.  The Lions need more than that in 2010 though.  2010 Season: Northcutt has a high salary that does not match his production.  He will be gone.

Derrick Williams: A lot of people are down on Williams after his underwhelming rookie season, but wide receiver is one of the most difficult positions to adjust to as a rookie.  He was most disappointing in the return game, which was the only area he was expected to make an impact.  He has the raw skills to be an effective slot receiver and maybe in another season or two he could blossom into a starter.  It’s hard to write off a receiver until after his third year in the league, so we need to be patient.  2010 Season: I believe the coaches will focus on getting him ready for special teams first, then they will look for contributions as a receiver.  He will need to at least be able to step in as the fourth receiver to be on the active roster.

Brandon Pettigrew: I was not a fan of the Pettigrew pick, and I still wish we would have gone with Michael Oher instead.  However, Pettigrew really started to show what a weapon he can be before getting injured.  He got off to a slow start because of injuries in training camp and it took him a while to really get involved in the offense.  He was a strong blocker in college and didn’t disappoint as a rookie, and his receiving numbers were exceptional for a rookie.  Hopefully he’s a fast healer, because he is an important part of the offense.  2010 Season: Pettigrew will start as soon as he’s completely healthy.

Will Heller: The Lions signed Will Heller to be a blocking tight end and he surprised by displaying solid receiving skills as well.  He’s not nearly the same threat Pettigrew is, but he’s a very similar type of player. 2010 Season: Should reprise role as second tight end.

Casey Fitzsimmons: Fitz is one of the rare bright spots from the Matt Millen Error..I mean Era.  He is a solid all-around player that can contribute as a tight end, fullback and Pro Bowl caliber special teamer.  He is the heir to the Cory “Sledge” Schlesinger throne. 2010 Season: He is far to versatile to not return.

Offseason Goal(s): The Lions will be looking for at least two receivers and maybe another tight end if Pettigrew ends up on the PUP list.  They really need another receiver that is a threat to get open deep whether he is a speedy receiver or a big guy like Vincent Jackson.  They also need a Wes Welker type slot receiver.  He doesn’t need to be flashy, he just needs to be able to get open and have good hands.  Stafford is the type of quarterback that can make his receivers better, if he significantly improves his accuracy.  The Lions will need to find their answers in free agency because it’s too much to expect a rookie to come in and play at a high enough level to draw coverage away from CJ.  At tight end the Lions can really stand pat and be fine if Pettigrew is on target to return before the start of the season.  If he is behind in his rehab, they may sign somebody or rely on a young guy like Jake Nordin who got some playing time after Pettigrew went down.  If a solid tight end is cut in a salary purge, the Lions could make a move because they utilize so many two tight end formations.

Many people, media members and fans alike, denounced the promotions of Tom Lewand and Martin Mayhew after the 0-16 debacle. Why shouldn’t they? Both men worked under the general manager with the worst record in NFL history.

There were two main views opposing the promotion of Lewand and Mayhew. One group felt that because they were associated with Millen, they were incapable of handling the job. Others opposed it not because Lewand and Mayhew were hired by Millen, but because they wanted a proven president and GM to take over.

The first view was very misguided in my opinion. Just because Millen was terrible at his job doesn’t mean that everybody that worked with him was terrible at theirs. Do businesses declare bankruptcy because all of their employees were incapable, or because the employees running the company were incapable? It‘s more often the latter. To assume that Lewand and Mayhew would be terrible just because Millen was is irresponsible.

I wanted the Lions to hire a well-respected candidate from a team with a strong track record of success. Two of those candidates were Scott Pioli, the co-architect of the Patriots dynasty (now with the Chiefs) or Tom Heckert of the Eagles (now with the Browns.) When a team is trying to recover from the level of failure the Lions experienced, why start with unproven commodities like Lewand and Mayhew? It was too risky for my taste, but there have been several encouraging signs since the duo assumed control of the Lions.

Hiring Jim Schwartz was a great move, even though the 2-14 record doesn’t directly indicate that. Schwartz made prudent hires for his coaching staff, laid a strong foundation for future success, showed his attention to detail with some astute coaches’ challenges and took a hard line with players to properly set expectations.

Mayhew also committed highway robbery with two trades snagging 1st, 3rd and 6th round picks from the Cowboys for WR Roy Williams and shipping DT Cory Redding to Seattle for Julian Peterson. He also made a couple of solid free agent signings in CB Phillip Buchanon, LB Larry Foote and RB Maurice Morris.

Mayhew’s first draft class yielded five starters and two solid role players. Only one rookie did not make a significant impact, WR Derrick Williams, although it is far too early to call him a bust or disappointment.

Earlier this week, two of those draft picks were named to the Pro Football Weekly/Professional Football Writers of America All-Rookie team, Louis Delmas and Brandon Pettigrew. Matthew Stafford would most likely have made the team if not for Mark Sanchez getting the benefit of taking over a playoff team.

Mayhew did have a few misses in free agency most notably WR Bryant Johnson. He also made two trades that were stalemates, trading QB John Kitna for CB Anthony Henry and S Gerald Alexander for WR Dennis Northcutt.

Overall, the last twelve months have built confidence in this front office and shed light on how deep a hole Matt Millen dug this team into. Despite the progress, many fans are waiting for results before they invest themselves in the Lions again. There is another population, most likely bolstered by Profootballtalk.com’s weekly call for Mayhew and Lewand’s jobs, who think the Lions need to clean house this year. The road back to respectability is a long one, but the first steps the Lions have taken are encouraging.